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📊 Methodology: LMIA Risk Assessment

Understanding the Scoring System

📌 Note on Dataset Versions: This site provides two views of LMIA data:

Overview

The Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) program requires employers to demonstrate that they made genuine efforts to recruit Canadians and permanent residents before importing foreign workers. This tool identifies statistical patterns that may be inconsistent with "good faith" recruitment efforts, based on publicly available government data.

Important: This tool provides statistical analysis for informational and research purposes only. High risk scores are NOT accusations of wrongdoing and do not prove fraud or misconduct. All employers should be presumed innocent. Scores indicate patterns that MAY warrant investigation by proper authorities.

⚠️ IRCC Known Violators vs. Statistical Risk Assessment

Two Different Types of Information

This tool presents two distinct categories of employers that serve different purposes:

Category What It Means Level of Certainty Source
IRCC Known Violator Employer officially found non-compliant with TFW program rules through government investigation CONFIRMED IRCC Employer Compliance List
High/Very High Risk (Statistical) Multiple statistical patterns present that MAY indicate potential compliance issues PATTERNS ONLY This tool's algorithmic analysis

Key Distinction: A Known Violator is a government-confirmed enforcement action. A high statistical risk score indicates patterns that should be investigated further but are not proof of wrongdoing.

🔍 IRCC Violator Matching: Why Your Company Isn't Flagged

The IRCC Non-Compliant Employers list contains confirmed violations. To maintain legal defensibility, we use EXACT matching requiring both employer name AND province to match official records.

Why some franchises aren't flagged:

This is a feature, not a bug: Exact matching protects against false accusations and maintains accuracy. A posting WILL be flagged only if its employer name and province exactly match an IRCC violation record.

Risk Factors Explained

1. Wage Competitiveness (0-40 points) — Maximum Weight

Policy Rationale: If an employer "can't find anyone" locally for a position, they should be offering competitive wages to attract workers. Wages at or near the provincial median suggest insufficient effort to make the position attractive to Canadian workers.

Scoring Methodology:

Wage Level Points Interpretation
At/below NOC median wage 40 Not competitive; maximum penalty
1-5% above median 30 Minimal premium; weak competitive signal
6-10% above median 20 Moderate premium
11-20% above median 10 Solidly above-market wages
More than 20% above median 0 Genuinely competitive; no penalty

Data Source: Statistics Canada Job Bank Wages Dataset (2025) – Official wage data by NOC code and province.

2. High-Risk Occupation (0-25 points)

Policy Rationale: Certain occupations have documented patterns of worker exploitation and LMIA program abuse. These typically involve lower skill requirements and vulnerable populations.

Scoring: 25 points for occupations in high-risk categories:

Data Source: Statistics Canada NOC 2021 classification and industry abuse documentation.

3. Large-Scale Hiring (0-20 points)

Policy Rationale: Bulk position requests in a single application raise questions about genuine recruitment efforts and whether the employer conducted a meaningful local labour market assessment.

Scoring:

Positions Requested Points Reasoning
20 or more positions 20 Very high risk: bulk import signal
10-19 positions 15 High quantity; potential staffing deficit
5-9 positions 10 Multiple positions; some concern
Less than 5 positions 0 Single or few positions; reasonable
4. Corporate Transparency (0-15 points)

Policy Rationale: Legitimate, established businesses should have verifiable corporate information. Lack of transparency about incorporation status increases the risk of informal operations or fraud.

Scoring: 15 points for unknown or unverifiable incorporation status.

Data Source: Information extracted from LMIA application records (incorporate_status field).

5. Affordability Crisis Indicator (0-15 points)

Policy Rationale: Offered wages must be sufficient to afford basic housing in the work location. Wages insufficient for local living costs indicate exploitative conditions and worker vulnerability.

Scoring:

Calculation: Monthly income = Offered wage × 160 hours (40 hrs/week, 4 weeks)

Data Sources: CMHC rental market data, Census metropolitan area rent averages.

6. Serial Applicant Pattern (0-20 points)

Policy Rationale: Chronic LMIA usage suggests either serious worker retention problems or systematic reliance on temporary foreign workers rather than developing local workforce capacity. Employers making genuine recruitment efforts should need fewer repeat LMIAs over time.

Scoring:

Interpretation: A single employer requesting workers for multiple different positions (or the same position multiple times) in one quarter may indicate they are not investing in permanent hiring or worker retention.

7. Industry Risk Profile (0-10 points)

Policy Rationale: Certain industries have documented higher rates of LMIA violations, worker abuse, and fraud. Employers in these sectors require closer scrutiny.

High-Risk Industries (10 points):

Score Calculation & Risk Categories

Total Score Methodology

Raw Score Maximum: 120 points (sum of all factors)
Normalization: Raw scores are normalized to a 0-100 scale for consistency and comparison
Formula: Normalized Score = min(100, (Raw Score / 120) × 100)

Risk Categories

Applications are categorized based on normalized score:

Data Sources & Methodology Notes

Official Data Sources

Important Limitations

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is this tool attacking immigrants or temporary foreign workers?
A: No, absolutely not. This tool examines employer behavior, not workers. Temporary foreign workers are often the victims of exploitation by unscrupulous employers. This tool's purpose is to promote accountability for employers who may be abusing the LMIA program. Better enforcement protects both workers and legitimate employers.
Q: Are high scores proof of fraud or illegal activity?
A: No. High scores indicate statistical patterns that MAY warrant further investigation by authorities, but they are not proof of fraud or misconduct. All employers should be presumed innocent. This tool provides research and transparency, not legal determinations. The actual investigation and enforcement are the responsibility of Government of Canada authorities (Service Canada, ESDC).
Q: Can employers challenge their scores?
A: Yes. The methodology is transparent and based on publicly available data. If you believe data in your LMIA record is incorrect, you can contact the Government of Canada Open Data Portal to request corrections to official LMIA records, or submit a formal request to Service Canada to review your LMIA records for accuracy.
Q: How often is the data updated?
A: LMIA data is published quarterly by the Government of Canada. This tool updates when new data is released. Current data is from Q2 2025; Q3 2025 data is expected in January 2026.
Q: What should I do with this information?
A: This tool is designed for researchers, journalists, policymakers, and advocates. Share findings with journalists, support labour organizations, contact elected officials with policy recommendations, and report suspected violations to Service Canada (1-866-602-9448) or ESDC Integrity Services ([email protected]).
Q: Who created this tool?
A: An independent systems analyst concerned about transparency in the LMIA program. The goal is to make publicly available government data more accessible and understandable for researchers, journalists, and advocates.

Legal Disclaimer

This tool provides statistical analysis of publicly available government data for informational and research purposes only. High risk scores are NOT accusations, allegations, or proof of wrongdoing. All employers should be presumed innocent. Scores indicate patterns that may warrant further investigation by proper authorities.

For reporting suspected violations to authorities, contact:
Service Canada: 1-866-602-9448 (report LMIA violations)
ESDC Integrity Services: [email protected]

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